by Victor Jih
Winner of The Amazing Race Season 14

This week on The Amazing Race, the eight teams were told to fly from Cambodia to the Persian Gulf, where they had to locate the world’s tallest building, the Burj Dubai.  (Mad props to Ericka for knowing the world’s tallest building is in Dubai.  Not so for Sam and Dan who tried to get tickets to the “Persian Gulf”—isn’t that technically the middle of the ocean?)  After ascending to the 120th floor, the teams received their first FAST FORWARD clue (racing cars at the Dubai Autodrome).  Only Meghan & Cheyne take the fast forward, leaving the remaining teams to trek out to the Dubai Desert Conservation Reserve where, at the ROADBLOCK, one team member battled searing heat and dehydration as he/she hunted for water located in urns buried in the sand. 

After successfully completing that task, teams went from the extreme heat to the extreme cold as they enjoyed Ski Dubai located at the Mall of the Emirates (I think this mall puts the Mall of America to shame).  There, the DETOUR gave the teams a choice to either hunt for little snowmen in a huge pile of snow or to build a giant snowman in the Dubai heat.  From there, teams arrived at the PIT STOP (Souk Madinat Jumeirah), where Meghan & Cheyne took first place (surprise-NOT) and sadly, Keri and Lance were eliminated.  Instead of ten random thoughts this week, I thought I’d share my musings on the FIVE FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS for any Amazing Racer.
 
QUESTION 1—SO IS THE RACE REALLY JUST A MATTER OF LUCK?
Even though Cheyne & Meghan took first this week, they did so because of the FAST FORWARD—which was basically a “gimme” since no other team fought them for it.  So the real competition this week was between the remaining teams—and you have to give Brian & Ericka credit for dominating a tight, tough leg.  But as I think about the leg, it does seem like Brian & Ericka won because they were extremely lucky (and admittedly did not make a bad mistake).  Race watchers have often asked me, is the race ultimately just about luck?  Brian & Ericka rocked the ROADBLOCK because Brian was able to find the urn with water before any other team.  There was no skill involved since it was pure luck which urn you walked to first.  They rocked the DETOUR because Ericka was able to find the snowman in the pile of snow really quickly.  Good luck plus good luck equaled what was effectively first place (but for the FAST FORWARD).
 
So as an ex-racer, do I think the race is ultimately about luck?  Yes and no.  I do think that to win luck can play a large role.  In the Dubai leg, it didn’t matter how skilled or smart the other teams were—no one was going to overcome the good luck that seemed to blessed Brian & Ericka.  Of course, every team will also face their share of bad luck—it’s inherent in the race.  My sister and I used to say in our interviews “you cannot win the Amazing Race if you are not able to overcome your bad luck—because it will come.”  (For example, it’s not always televised, but I know that every team our season had their own share of slow/bad taxicab drivers.)  Generally speaking though, I do not think any team is so doomed that they will be eliminated because of bad luck.  Teams tend to get eliminated because of their mistakes or because of how they handle the bad luck they encounter.  In a leg that seemed to be dominated by luck, I thought it was ultimately fair that Lance & Keri were eliminated NOT because they were just unlucky compared to the other teams, but because they could not navigate in Dubai.  It was a mistake or lack of navigation skill that sealed their fate—as it should be. 
 
Since luck does play a role, though, the question is how should a racer deal with issues of luck?  I do not have magic answers here, but several things stood out to me watching this episode.  FIRST, I liked how Brian approached the race as a “big game of karma.”  In some ways, creating your own good luck is the great thing to do.  (Like Pascal’s Wager, it certainly cannot hurt to cultivate good karma.)  Helping Tiffany, Dan, and others during the leg makes a lot of sense, and reaped both good will among teams and positive results.  I don’t know if the karmic gods were rewarding Brian, but they did get a lot of good luck.  (I assume the karmic gods looked the other way when Brian had a little irrational slip-up and tried to tell teams to “pretend the ride up the Burj Dubai was really scary”—I’m not sure scaring little Mika counts as good karma.)  SECOND, Tammy and I always said that we would not subject ourselves unnecessarily to the whims of luck.  While it was unavoidable at the ROADBLOCK, teams did not have to choose the “luck task” at the DETOUR.  It was interesting that every team (except Lance & Keri) chose “hunt for the little snowman in a big pile of snow” instead of a task that was more a matter of their skill.  It paid off handsomely for Brian & Ericka and Team Globetrotter, but for the others it was a dicey decision since building the snowman was really not that difficult at all.  Of course, the lucky ones “won” the leg.  But I would hate to be an extremely “unlucky” one that leg.  FINALLY, I always assumed we would encounter bad luck.  I approached the race assuming something horrible would happen.  The key for us was to have a contingency plan (i.e., having phone numbers for your cab driver in case you lose your passport again!).  Ultimately, luck is a big part of the game—not the ultimate determiner, but an important part that needs to be nurtured, managed, and overcome.
 
QUESTION 2—WHEN DO YOU GO OUT ON A LIMB AND RACE AHEAD/ALONE?
There are two ways to race.  One way is be a part of a big lemming herd following each other around.  Another is to be a “frontrunner” forging ahead your own way.  Readers of my blog have already heard my view that racing-to-win-but-with-at-least-one-other-team-for-insurance was the strategy my sister and I ultimately settled on in the race.  But you see again in Dubai the benefits and disadvantages of a race-ahead-and-go-your-own-way mentality.  The “frontrunner” mentality is seen in its most positive light with Cheyne & Whitney.  Cheyne even said in his interview that he likes racing ahead and being in front.  They don’t tend to rely much on other teams—they rely on each other.  And there was no doubt that this team would go for the fast forward.  They want to win every time and that competitive no-holds-barred spirit has paid off for them.  The downside of the “go it alone” strategy was exhibited by Lance & Keri.  As teams raced from the Burj Dubai to the parking lot where the cars were waiting, Keri said “everybody went the other way” but Lance still wanted to go his way.  They ended up lost, in the wrong place, and behind.  Without other teams around or as reference, it seemed inevitable that they would get lost further and they never seemed to recover.
 
There are, of course, pros and cons to both strategies.  Lemmings can’t win.  But “frontrunners” have a tendency to trip and fall at some point—potentially fatally.  That’s because everybody is fallible and it’s impossible to run the perfect race.  Back to TAR14, our “frontrunner” position in Romania was clearly stupid in hindsight.  Instead of waiting a minute or two for the Flight Attendants to catch up and attack the detour together, I wanted to race ahead—a mistake that resulted in a four hour side-trip up the mountains of Romania.  The only reason we were saved from elimination is because another “frontrunner” team tripped up worse than we did.  Brad and Victoria wanted a few minutes lead on the other teams and took their own flight through Amsterdam—putting themselves half a day behind when fog struck.  They went into the race saying they wanted to do their own thing, so I guess it was appropriate that it ended that way.
 
A word on the FAST FORWARD… The FAST FORWARD is fun to watch as a viewer when multiple teams go for it, or if a team has to decide whether to go for it without knowing what other teams are doing.  There was no such drama this time, since it was a no-brainer for Meghan & Cheyne to go for it.  They were in a situation of perfect knowledge.  They knew every team was in two packs (15 minutes apart).  They knew they were in the first pack—so there was no uncertainty whether any other team had gone for the FAST FORWARD.  The only issue was whether multiple teams would go for it.  They were smart to immediately ANNOUNCE what they would do.  By announcing it, they deterred every other team.  A no-risk FAST FORWARD.  Smart play on their part.  The remaining downside to any FAST FORWARD, though, is that taking it means you do not have a chance to enjoy the desert or Ski Dubai.  But somehow I think Meghan & Cheyne care more about winning the race than they do about enjoying the sights along the way.  The “frontrunners” of this season, Meghan & Cheyne are running a race that requires them to be perfect and/or “just that much better” than every other team.  Let’s see if they can keep it up.   I personally think they will go far.  I’m curious, though, if they will ever meet their “bad luck” moment and if and how they will overcome it.  Perhaps they’re just fated to win… we’ll see.
 
QUESTION 3—HOW DO YOU PROCEED QUICKLY IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY?
The race forces teams to proceed quickly when there is imperfect information, ambiguous information, or no information.  Seeing Keri & Lance and Canaan & Mika struggle with directions this week brought flashbacks—how do you hurry when you don’t know where to hurry to?  There’s no easy answer, but every team has to come up with their own way to deal with the question.  During TAR 14, we had this come up in Leg  2 (Germany to Austria).  It didn’t come across on television, but my sister and I had to drive over two hours from the Munich airport to Ruhpolding.  Everyone was bunched up leaving the airport, so it was a mad dash to the cars and onto the Autobahn.  We had prepared and obtained “mapquest-like” directions to Ruhpolding, so we were not driving blind—but the signs getting out of the airport to the Autobahn did not make sense and none of the street signs matched the directions we had written down.  I remember having debates with my sister over whether there was one Autobahn in Germany or many Autobahns.  We didn’t know if “2A Autobahn” was the same thing as “2 Autobahn.”  Throughout the drive, my sister wanted to stop and ask for directions and to get reassurance we weren’t racing off in the wrong direction.  That was probably the smarter thing to do.  I, however, didn’t want to stop and get delayed.  I wanted to keep going because I was “95% sure we were right” even though I couldn’t prove it definitively.  In what must have been a grueling couple of hours for my sister, I wouldn’t let her stop.  We were finally reassured when we saw Kris and Amanda in their Mercedes.  As we approached the Ruhpolding, we both pulled off the wrong exit.  Neither of us knew exactly where we were going.  Kris and Amanda finally stopped to ask a stopped car; I made my sister keep going.  Fortunately for us, we found the right way almost instantly and that minute difference led to us getting onto the cable car first (they missed it) and from there we blew open our lead for a win.  No question proceeding in the face of uncertainty led to the win in Germany.  That said, the same approach led to disaster in Romania one leg later.  So I share this story not to say there is one right way; only to illustrate the dilemma. 
 
For a racer, it is all about striking the right balance between wanting certainty versus proceeding with uncertainty.  Complete certainty is not possible; but how much certainty is enough.  Driving quickly when you have zero idea where you are going makes no sense.  But how about racing ahead when you are 50% sure, 80% sure, 99% sure?  A lot of it ultimately turns on how much risk you are willing to tolerate.  Arguments are inevitable when the two partners have different levels of risk tolerance.  The only wisdom I can glean is this:  (1) Both team members have to keep working together when facing uncertainty.  While sometimes potentially annoying, Canaan’s tendency to “backseat” drive is a good thing.  Keri’s “I don’t know” is not very helpful.  When one team member “checks out” and “defers” to the other teammate, it usually spells trouble.  (2) Constant vigilance is needed.  There really is no relaxing during the race.  When we were racing down the Autobahn, I had to continuously tell my sister my five arguments for proceeding and to keep checking data to make sure we were still on track.  We were heading in the right direction according to the compass.  We kept looking for cities that we knew we would pass along the way.  We kept looking for other teams.  And so forth and so on.
 
QUESTION 4—WHEN IS A GOOD TIME TO QUIT?
We are all taught as kids—especially young boys—that being a “quitter” is not a good thing.  You see this in Sam’s insistence that they keep looking for a snowman in the snow pile (not a coincidence that Sam is the eldest brother).  You see this in Flight Time & Big Easy’s comments about “this is how men do it” when they successfully find the snowman after Sam & Dan quit.  During our season, the issue reared its ugly head once in Romania as we trekked up the mountain and another time when Tammy and I were trying to be synchronized divers.  There is something about “quitting” the chosen path or task that is hard to do, especially after there has been substantial investment.  But one thing I learned is that “quitting” is not always a bad thing.  Indeed, sometimes “quitting quickly” is the smartest thing to do.  Gary & Matt switched tasks very quickly, without much drama and get fourth place (really third if you eliminate the Fast Forward).  Arguably, but for the two really lucky teams (Brian & Ericka and Flight Time & Big Easy who “luckily” find the snowman), the team that “quit” the fastest was the team that prevailed.  During our season, we were later told that it would probably be physically impossible for Tammy and I to synchronize dive since we are of different heights and weights.  The real test was how long it would take before we realized that and switched tasks.  Whether it is smart to quit will of course depend on the circumstances.  What I learned on the race was that there is a fine line between steadfastness/resolve and stubbornness/stupidity. 

The key is to base the decision to quit on “reason” and not “emotion.”  I saw a lot of myself in Sam this week.  It reminded me of deciding to switch from diving to swimming.  I kept saying “no; let’s keep going; we’re almost there; we can do this.”  At a certain point, though, I realized I was not thinking or evaluating the situation rationally.  I was simply emotionally committed to completion. 

So I deferred and said “Tammy—you make the call; either way is cool.”  Sam insisted on continuing but suddenly relented, let Dan make the decision, and it was the right decision.
 
QUESTION 5—HOW DO YOU OVERCOME FEAR?
On every race, there is the moment where someone will have to face and overcome a “fear”—be it a fear of heights, a fear of creepy bugs, a fear of eating intestines, or a fear of losing control.  We see a glimpse of it in this episode with Mika’s fear of heights.  Mika is worried about riding the elevator up the Burj Dubai because she thinks they might have to jump off of the world’s tallest building (fortunately the building isn’t complete and I don’t think anyone has invented a long enough bungee cord).  We see a glimpse of it with Whitney who worries about having to drive a race car around a track in less than 45 seconds (fortunately Cheyne rocks the task and Whitney does not have to do it).  Not all of us can be Cheyne who defines fearlessness.  I like his willingness to jump into any situation—without hesitation—because he is confident in his own abilities to sort things out and make it happen.  For the rest of us who believe we have limits, the question is, How do you overcome fear?  As a rational matter, rarely do our fears materialize.  How many times have we seen racers confront their “fear” only to later say “yeah, it wasn’t bad at all.”  But fear is not rational. 
 
During our season, I only faced “fear” twice.  The first was bungee jumping off of Verasco Dam in Switzerland.  I had never done anything like that before.  As we were approaching the bungee jump, I wasn’t even thinking about what was happening.  All I cared about was running ahead of the stuntmen brothers so we would be in first position.  It wasn’t until I secured first position, was being strapped into the safety gear, when I suddenly realized what I was about to do.  As CBS documented, I proceeded to say “Oh my God” several thousand times.  I remember the only reason I made it through the task was by repeating “Look, you have no choice.  You’re going to do it.  So just get it done.”  I made myself move and act without thinking.  Part of me was afraid I was going to go into “autopilot” and jump even before I was supposed to.  The second fear moment was synchronized diving.  To be honest, I thought that was more frightening than the bungee jump.  Though you cannot tell on television, it was near impossible to make myself jump at the end of the spring board.  Jumping into the water was no problem; bouncing at the end of the board was the hard part.  Even though I was terrified the entire time, the only way I muscled through that task was to focus on calming my sister down.  Even though she was doing fine, by focusing on alleviating her fear and talking her through it, I was able to distract myself from my own fear.
 
Every racer has to think of their own to overcome fear.  I think the next leg in Dubai this issue will come to the forefront.  In the preview, we see Mika’s fear of heights and her fear of water throttle her in a double-dose of phobia.  We also see what appears to be Canaan attempting to push her down the tall water slide.  It will be interesting to see what happens.
 
RANDOM THOUGHT
One final question.  Did anyone else notice that when Maria and Tiffany checked into the pit stop, only Tiffany had her bag?   What happened to Maria’s bag?  It looked like the consolidated bags or something.  I didn’t notice Maria toss it to the side as they were running in—and there would have been no reason to do so.  So I wonder if this was a deliberate move on their part.  During TAR 14, the Flight Attendants ditched both their bags after their non-elimination leg so they could be more fleet of foot.  They almost came from behind to survive the next leg in India.  It was probably a good thing they didn’t, since the race continued back into the freezing cold of China.  During the last leg to Miami, many teams ditched their bags.  Tammy and I consolidated into one bag, putting everything we didn’t care about in the second bag and deliberately left it on the plane.  We knew we could just go to lost and found and get it back, and we were prepared to just lose that bag.  I wonder if some similar tactic was at work here.  Just a thought.
 
Next week we are still in Dubai.  I’m still jealous. 

Until then…

The Amazing Race airs Sunday nights at 8pm ET on CBS.
 
(Image courtesy of CBS)

 
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